You know what I've heard from the McCain camp, and numerous non-American press outlets? I heard that Obama is getting more publicity from the media than McCain. I am shocked. I mean, it just doesn't make sense for the press to be chasing around a handsome, young, energizing mulatto from Chicago's south side. They should be chasing a battle-worn, cranky, white septuagenarian like McCain. The statistics are pretty interesting though. In the past month, of the new stories regarding Presidential candidates, 77% have been about Obama, with only 33% about McCain. That disparity is a tad disconcerting. And, many in the press have been blatantly open about their lack of objectivity, saying, as Chris Matthews did, that they have "felt a tingling sensation go up [their] legs" when hearing Obama speak and campaign. It would not be quite so funny if it weren't actually happening. But, at the same time, most American news is nothing but sensationalism passed off as journalism. And that's one reason I read more news from Britain and other countries.
However, I can't help but think I am only contributing to the Obamamania by mentioning him in my blog as much as I do. I try to get both McCain's name, and Obama's in the same post, or in the same sentence (like this one), but it can be tricky. They are trying to outmaneuver each other using the press. Well, I won't be bought. The fact is, regardless of the press's favoritism of Obama, the polls have remained relatively the same. Obama has a slim 2-3% point lead and it hasn't changed much at all for a few weeks. That should be comforting to McCain, and a little sign of trouble for Obama. Either way, I think it will be a fun race to watch in these upcoming days and months.
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depending on the polls you look at, it is anywhere from 2-3% on the low end to 7-8% on the high end (excluding outliers etc.).
Given the stunning incompetence and corruption of the last eight years of GOP governance, I too am surprised that Obama is not doing better; I expect him to pick up significant support as people start to pay attention (side note: can you believe people are _not_ paying attention; I guess this question is the mark of the true political junkie, a cry for help as it were....).
However, Obama does face significant hurdles in terms of many Americans being simply unwilling or uncomfortable pulling the lever for a black guy. Nevertheless, given the fact that al-Maliki pulled the rug out of McCain this past week on his (by the press' estimation, at least) strongest issue, Iraq; given the fact that the economy is in tatters and bound to get worse (I for one, am not happy about seeing my tax money, which should be used for the general welfare and the common good, bailing out some asshole investment banker who made a bunch of extraordinarily poor bets and now wants the public to pay up; screw that guy and all his Wall Street buddies. Let their creditors bust some kneecaps and take their pound(s) of flesh.); and given that McCain is a pretty poor campaigner -- good in places like N. Hampshire for the primary, where he can do town hall all the time, but off-the-cuff, gaffe-prone, and possessed of a volcanic temper, I think the wind is at Obama's back. He hasn't got it wrapped up yet, but it's useful to note that in the 2004 cycle, W led Kerry by an average of 4 points at his BEST, while Kerry never pulled better than even with W, things are looking good for Barack (knock on wood). Things look even worse for the GOP in the Senate and the House -- just look at that deep red seat in MS that went to a Dem in the recent special election. If the GOP is struggling to hold onto seats in a deep southern state like MS, that's gotta' have a lot of people nervous in the Republican leadership. I am cautiously optimistic, which is lot for a Democrat.
Finally, "mulatto", because of its association with the Jim Crow style herrenvolk race regime (along with terms like "quadroon" and "octaroon"), is deemed offensive in most places now, and I would kindly suggest "mixed race" in its place. Not that I think it's your intention to offend, just a word to the wise.
Hope it's not too hot where you are in this fine country of ours.
I do think Obama will have trouble with the poor and blue collar white vote, as he did with Clinton. But McCain will have trouble with hispanics and blacks.
I think Obama will have trouble with poor whites in a number of states; but mostly concentrated in Appalachia. Note that by the standard def., a lot of places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, parts of upstate NY, count as Appalachia, as do parts of Alabama and Mississippi.
But he will do well with working-class voters who are union-members, especially in places like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Michigan, as well as urban Ohio and PA.
McCain is currently at something like 2% among blacks and 33% among Hispanics -- having staked a lot on immigration reform to gather Latino votes, he seems to have mainly alienated more conservative Republicans while not really breaking through with Latino voters. I genuinely think McCain is on the side of the angels with regard to immigration (so is the President), but that people like Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter, and other Republicans from So. Cal, Arizona, Texas, etc., have really poisoned the GOP brand among Spanish-speakers for the next generation.
Big lightning here in Duxbury tonight, and keep up the interesting posts.
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